Futures and Foresight

Futures and foresight approaches encourage us to think about and plan strategically for the future. They are less about predicting the future, and more about helping us to make sense of the present: to identify trends, map alternative futures, and come up with plans for how to reach the future that we most desire.

The following guide provides an overview of tools and models from futures and foresight, with practical suggestions about how to use these in your work.

Three horizons can be used in lots of different ways, including:

• Helping you to make sense of trends and emerging changes
• Helping you to understand different perspectives about change
• Coming up with ideas for innovations

Futures work can be particularly useful in health care, as many of the models acknowledge and pay attention to the complexity that exists in systems.

While futures theory is used most in policy or academia, there are many tools and methods that have been developed or adapted for teams and organisations as part of planning and strategy development.

The material in this guide is part of The Health Foundation Shaping Health Futures, a programme of work that explores long-term issues impacting health and social care, and their implications for policy.

The three horizons model used in the guide was developed by Bill Sharpe at International Futures Forum. It is a visual model that can work well to support group discussions.